Insourcing the Passenger Demand Forecasting System for Revenue Management at DB Fernverkehr: Lessons Learned from the First Year

Valentin Wagner (), Stephan Dlugosz, Sang-Hyeun Park and Philipp Bartke
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Valentin Wagner: DB Fernverkehr AG
Sang-Hyeun Park: DB Fernverkehr AG
Philipp Bartke: DB Fernverkehr AG

A chapter in Operations Research Proceedings 2019, 2020, pp 625-631 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The long-distance traffic division of Deutsche Bahn (DB) uses a revenue management system to sell train-tickets to more than 140 million passengers per year. One essential component of a successful Railway Revenue Management system is an accurate forecast of future demand. To benefit from a tighter integration, DB decided in 2017 to develop its own forecast environment PAUL (Prognose AUsLastung) to replace the legacy third-party forecasting system. This paper presents the conceptual and technical setup of PAUL. Furthermore, experiences of the first year using PAUL as a production forecast environment are presented: It turned out that PAUL has a higher forecasting quality than the predecessor system and that the insourcing led to a constructive collaboration of PAUL system experts and revenue managers, which is beneficial for identifying opportunities for improvement.

Keywords: Forecasting system; Revenue management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-48439-2_76

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