Comparative Analysis of Demographic Projections: Assessing Long-Term Trends for the World and Russia

A. I. Antonov and V. M. Karpova ()
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A. I. Antonov: M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University
V. M. Karpova: N.M. Rimashevskaya Institute of Socio-Economic Problems of Population, Federal Research Sociological Center, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2025, vol. 36, issue 2, 271-279

Abstract: Abstract The article presents a comparative analysis of forecasts for the dynamics of the world and Russian population up to 2100. The main sources of data used are UN forecasts (World Population Prospects 2019, 2022 and 2024), as well as IHME forecasts, IIASA and Rosstat. A trend towards slowing global population growth has been identified in all forecast scenarios, with a high probability of reaching a peak population by the end of the 21st century. A comparative analysis of key forecast scenarios is conducted, with an emphasis on the role of assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration in the formation of long-term demographic estimates. The analysis of demographic forecasts for Russia includes a critical assessment of the underlying hypotheses fertility, mortality and migration in the context of current demographic trends and historical dynamics. It is shown that most forecasts are characterized by overestimated estimates of fertility and mortality, which makes the implementation of low and medium scenarios more likely, while high scenarios are unlikely to be achieved in the current demographic situation.

Keywords: demographic forecast; forecast scenario; population size; birth rate; life expectancy; migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700746

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