More Complex Models for Random Durations

Dana Kelly () and Curtis Smith ()
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Dana Kelly: Idaho National Laboratory (INL)
Curtis Smith: Idaho National Laboratory (INL)

Chapter Chapter 8 in Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, 2011, pp 89-109 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter considers aleatory models that allow for a non-constant rate. Such models are often used in risk assessment for recovery and repair. Three commonly used distributions are treated: Weibull, lognormal, and gamma. Bayesian model checking is covered using posterior predictive checks and information criteria based on a penalized likelihood function. Also covered is the impact of parameter uncertainty on derived quantities, such as nonrecovery probabilities; failure to consider parameter uncertainty can lead to nonconservatively low estimates of such quantities, and thus to overall risk metrics that are nonconservative.

Keywords: Bayesian Information Criterion; Credible Interval; Deviance Information Criterion; Weibull Model; Mission Time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssrchp:978-1-84996-187-5_8

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-84996-187-5_8

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