The Economics of Partisan Gerrymandering

Anton Kolotilin and Alexander Wolitzky

No 2024-06, Discussion Papers from School of Economics, The University of New South Wales

Abstract: We study the problem of a partisan gerrymanderer who assigns voters to equipopulous districts to maximize his party’s expected seat share. The designer faces both aggregate, district-level uncertainty (how many votes his party will receive) and idiosyncratic, voter-level uncertainty (which voters will vote for his party). Segregate-pair districting, where weaker districts contain one type of voter, while stronger districts contain two, is optimal for the gerrymanderer. The optimal form of segregate-pair districting depends on the designer’s popularity and the relative amounts of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty. When idiosyncratic uncertainty dominates, a designer with majority support pairs all voters, while a designer with minority support segregates opposing voters and pairs more favorable voters; these plans resemble uniform districting and “packing-and-cracking,” respectively. When aggregate uncertainty dominates, the designer segregates moderate voters and pairs extreme voters; this “matching slices” plan has received some attention in the literature. Estimating the model using precinct-level returns from recent US House elections shows that, in practice, idiosyncratic uncertainty dominates. We discuss implications for redistricting reform, political polarization, and detecting gerrymandering. Methodologically, we exploit a formal connection between gerrymandering—partitioning voters into districts—and information design—partitioning states of the world into signals.

Keywords: Gerrymandering; pack-and-crack; segregate-pair; information design (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C78 D72 D82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2024-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-mic and nep-pol
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Economics of Partisan Gerrymandering (2023)
Working Paper: The Economics of Partisan Gerrymandering (2023)
Working Paper: The Economics of Partisan Gerrymandering (2020)
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