Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

Rafael Fernández

Europe-Asia Studies, 2009, vol. 61, issue 8, 1441-1459

Abstract: This article analyses the potential for Russian oil export growth through the next decade. It concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption, and especially on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by government energy policy. From this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. The most positive envisages it will be possible to diversify exports while the most negative suggests that Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.

Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1080/09668130903134830

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