Hayek on expectations: the interplay between two complex systems

Agnès Festré

The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2019, vol. 26, issue 5, 911-941

Abstract: In this paper, we argue that Hayek’s approach to expectations can be better understood if one takes into account the interplay between two related complex evolving systems: the cognitive system and the system of behavioural rules of action. The interplay between these two systems involves both positive and negative feedback mechanisms so that an individual system of rules can produce higher order regularities that preserve their existence over time. Our contribution complements existing work on Hayek’s cognitive theory by providing insights on how Hayek’s approach to expectations can inform modern behavioural economics.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/09672567.2019.1626464

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