A stroke prediction framework using explainable ensemble learning

Mostarina Mitu, S. M. Mahedy Hasan, Md Palash Uddin, Md Al Mamun, Venkatesan Rajinikanth and Seifedine Kadry

Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering, 2025, vol. 28, issue 8, 1223-1242

Abstract: The death of brain cells occurs when blood flow to a particular area of the brain is abruptly cut off, resulting in a stroke. Early recognition of stroke symptoms is essential to prevent strokes and promote a healthy lifestyle. FAST tests (looking for abnormalities in the face, arms, and speech) have limitations in reliability and accuracy for diagnosing strokes. This research employs machine learning (ML) techniques to develop and assess multiple ML models to establish a robust stroke risk prediction framework. This research uses a stacking-based ensemble method to select the best three machine learning (ML) models and combine their collective intelligence. An empirical evaluation of a publicly available stroke prediction dataset demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed stacking-based ensemble model, with only one misclassification. The experimental results reveal that the proposed stacking model surpasses other state-of-the-art research, achieving accuracy, precision, F1-score of 99.99%, recall of 100%, receiver operating characteristics (ROC), Mathews correlation coefficient (MCC), and Kappa scores 1.0. Furthermore, Shapley’s Additive Explanations (SHAP) are employed to analyze the predictions of the black-box machine learning (ML) models. The findings highlight that age, BMI, and glucose level are the most significant risk factors for stroke prediction. These findings contribute to the development of more efficient techniques for stroke prediction, potentially saving many lives.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/10255842.2024.2316877

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