A Bayesian multiple structural change regression model with autocorrelated errors

Jaehee Kim and Chulwoo Jeong

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2016, vol. 43, issue 9, 1690-1705

Abstract: This paper develops a new Bayesian approach to change-point modeling that allows the number of change-points in the observed autocorrelated times series to be unknown. The model we develop assumes that the number of change-points have a truncated Poisson distribution. A genetic algorithm is used to estimate a change-point model, which allows for structural changes with autocorrelated errors. We focus considerable attention on the construction of autocorrelated structure for each regime and for the parameters that characterize each regime. Our techniques are found to work well in the simulation with a few change-points. An empirical analysis is provided involving the annual flow of the Nile River and the monthly total energy production in South Korea to lead good estimates for structural change-points.

Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2015.1117592 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:japsta:v:43:y:2016:i:9:p:1690-1705

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CJAS20

DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2015.1117592

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Statistics is currently edited by Robert Aykroyd

More articles in Journal of Applied Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().