Risk analysis in the brazilian stock market: copula-APARCH modeling for value-at-risk

Marcela de Marillac Carvalho and Thelma Sáfadi

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2022, vol. 49, issue 6, 1598-1610

Abstract: Risk management of stock portfolios is a fundamental problem for the financial analysis since it indicates the potential losses of an investment at any given time. The objective of this study is to use bivariate static conditional copulas to quantify the dependence structure and to estimate the risk measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). There were selected stocks that have been performing outstandingly on the Brazilian Stock Exchange to compose pairs trading portfolios (B3, Gerdau, Magazine Luiza, and Petrobras). Due to the flexibility that this methodology offers in the construction of multivariate distributions and risk aggregation in finance, we used the copula-APARCH approach with the Normal, T-student, and Joe-Clayton copula functions. In most scenarios, the results showed a pattern of dependence at the extremes. Moreover, the copula form seems not to be relevant for VaR estimation, since in most portfolios the appropriate copulas lead to significant VaR estimates. It has found that the best models fitted provided conservative risk measures, estimates at 5% and 1%, in a scenario more aggressive.

Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2020.1865883 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:japsta:v:49:y:2022:i:6:p:1598-1610

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CJAS20

DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1865883

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Statistics is currently edited by Robert Aykroyd

More articles in Journal of Applied Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().