Supervised Dynamic PCA: Linear Dynamic Forecasting with Many Predictors

Zhaoxing Gao and Ruey S. Tsay

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2025, vol. 120, issue 550, 869-883

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel dynamic forecasting method using a new supervised Principal Component Analysis (PCA) when a large number of predictors are available. The new supervised PCA provides an effective way to bridge the gap between predictors and the target variable of interest by scaling and combining the predictors and their lagged values, resulting in an effective dynamic forecasting. Unlike the traditional diffusion-index approach, which does not learn the relationships between the predictors and the target variable before conducting PCA, we first rescale each predictor according to their significance in forecasting the targeted variable in a dynamic fashion, and a PCA is then applied to a rescaled and additive panel, which establishes a connection between the predictability of the PCA factors and the target variable. We also propose to use penalized methods such as the LASSO to select the significant factors that have superior predictive power over the others. Theoretically, we show that our estimators are consistent and outperform the traditional methods in prediction under some mild conditions. We conduct extensive simulations to verify that the proposed method produces satisfactory forecasting results and outperforms most of the existing methods using the traditional PCA. An example of predicting U.S. macroeconomic variables using a large number of predictors showcases that our method fares better than most of the existing ones in applications. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01621459.2024.2370592 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:120:y:2025:i:550:p:869-883

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/UASA20

DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2024.2370592

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the American Statistical Association is currently edited by Xuming He, Jun Liu, Joseph Ibrahim and Alyson Wilson

More articles in Journal of the American Statistical Association from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().