World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

Francesco Ravazzolo and Joaquin Vespignani

No 2017-08, Working Papers from University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics

Abstract: In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Keywords: global real economic activity; world steel production; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C5 C8 E1 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published by the University of Tasmania. Discussion paper 2017-08

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Related works:
Journal Article: World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity (2020)
Working Paper: World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity (2017)
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