Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines

Aurélien Baillon, Joseph Capuno, Aleli Kraft, Jenny Kudymowa and Owen O'Donnell
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Aurélien Baillon: emlyon Business School
Joseph Capuno: University of the Philippines Diliman
Aleli Kraft: University of the Philippines Diliman
Jenny Kudymowa: Rethink Priorities
Owen O'Donnell: Erasmus University Rotterdam

No 26-012/I, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: We test whether a conditional cash lottery targets prevention on those doing too little because of inverse-S probability distortion that also causes overvaluation of a lottery. Consistent with theory, Filipinos perceiving their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a wide intermediate interval (10%, 85%] are 3 percentage points (60%) less likely to have a check-up before baseline if they exhibit inverse- S distortion. A random lottery offer conditional on going for a check-up (CVD screening) increases the probability by 47 points overall. Estimates of compliance and lottery-induced CVD preventive care are larger (not significantly) for inverse- S (but also S) types perceiving intermediate risk.

Keywords: Prospect Theory; Probability Weighting; Behavioral Incentive; Lottery; Self-selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 D91 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-20
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