Irrigation and Climate Change: Long-Run Adaptation and Its Externalities

Charles A. Taylor

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2026, vol. 13, issue 4, 935 - 973

Abstract: As the largest user of water, irrigated agriculture accounts for 20% of global cropland and over 40% of food production. Irrigation is also a potential adaptive response to climate change. This study examines the extent to which the current global irrigation footprint reflects climate change over the last 50 years. Utilizing variation in local climate, I find that increasing drought conditions over time are associated with irrigation expansion in areas with groundwater potential. The results hold both globally and in the United States. GRACE satellite data suggest that this expansion of irrigation can contribute to aquifer stress and increased soil salinity, which represent potential negative externalities of climate adaptation and a threat to future food security.

Date: 2026
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