Who Migrates and Why? Evidence from Italian Administrative Data

Cristian Bartolucci, Claudia Villosio and Mathis Wagner

Journal of Labor Economics, 2018, vol. 36, issue 2, 551 - 588

Abstract: We use 20 years of Italian administrative panel data to identify the role of ability in migration from south to north. Using a novel iterative estimation method for a switching regression model with the same worker-specific source of unobserved heterogeneity in selection and outcome equations, we find that returns to ability are lower in the north than the south. Accordingly, migrants are drawn from the lower half of the ability distribution. Higher wages and employment rates each account for around half the gains from migration. Return migration reinforces the original negative selection of migrants, consistent with migrants facing considerable uncertainty.

Date: 2018
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