Work Boots to Combat Boots: Mass Layoffs and Military Enlistment

Francis Murphy () and Sarah Turner

Journal of Labor Economics, 2026, vol. 44, issue 1, 1 - 23

Abstract: Weak local labor market conditions may change the trajectories of young adults who expected to find work. Well-documented responses include increasing educational investments, moving to more prosperous labor markets, or reducing labor force attachment. Military enlistment is a channel of potential adjustment that has received less study. Using data on Army recruits, we demonstrate a significant local response in enlistment to mass layoffs, characterized by increased labor supply to the military rather than increased local military recruiting. Our work documents the significance of military employment as an important arm of adjustment to local labor market shocks.

Date: 2026
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