Critical Thresholds for Fish Resources in a Changing Climate

Yaqin Liu, Qingran Li and Zhenxuan Wang

Marine Resource Economics, 2026, vol. 41, issue 2, 63 - 84

Abstract: Climate-driven shifts in fish stocks, featuring many species across management boundaries, challenge fisheries sustainability. We examine the risk of regional stock extinction due to loss-driven overharvest in the face of climate change. We find critical thresholds for stock levels that, if crossed, can lead to depletion of fish resources within exclusive economic zones. We explore the sensitivity of the threshold to both biological and economic factors, emphasizing the overfishing incentives induced by climate-driven stock shifts. We further investigate the role of direct financial transfer (side payments) as a potential strategy to support conservation efforts under climate change. Loss-induced overfishing poses a substantial threat to global fisheries, especially in the tropical regions. Our findings underline the urgent need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate these risks.

Date: 2026
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