The IMF Model and Resource-Abundant Transition Economies: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Richard M. Auty

No wp-1999-169, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: The IMF model of the economic transition stresses the role of macro policy reform. It concludes that rapid reform to a market economy is preferable to slow reform because late reformers experience very steep transition recessions and severe contractions in government revenues. However, the predictive power of the IMF model has weakened through the late-1990s. This is because it under-estimates the role of initial conditions that include the natural resource endowment as well as institutional capital and the legacy of produced capital.

Keywords: Economic development; Economic policy; Natural resources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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