Coal, weather shocks, and electricity reliability: Evidence from South Africa

Imelda and Suchita Srinivasan

No wp-2026-69, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: Can weather shocks undermine energy security in coal-dependent economies? Using matched high-resolution rainfall data at South Africa's coal power plants and their contracted supplier mines—where coal accounts for about 80% of electricity generation—we estimate how upstream rainfall shocks propagate through the coal supply chain to affect plant performance and electricity reliability. We find that heavy rainfall at supplier mines reduces plant availability, primarily through unplanned outages. We also find evidence that upstream rainfall shocks increase the severity of load shedding.

Keywords: Electricity; Mining; Rainfall; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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