Local security provision and return from forced displacement: Evidence from South Sudan

Andrea C. Caflisch

No wp-2026-79, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: Existing accounts of return after forced displacement emphasize current security conditions. Yet present violence is a poor predictor of returnees' future prospects. This paper investigates the relationship between the institutions responsible for security provision and return. I argue that prospective returnees rely on the responsiveness and military capacity of local security providers as signals of future stability. In ethnic conflicts, this relationship is moderated by the geographical distribution of ethnic groups and by control over the central state.

Keywords: Forced migration; Conflict; Armed conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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