Economic voting in the Philippines

Bello Amelia L. ()
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Bello Amelia L.: Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines

HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, 2021, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-12

Abstract: The article wanted to find out if elections in the Philippines are economically motivated. Using 2019 gubernatorial election results, a logit model with inflation rate, unemployment rate, provincial revenue, and poverty incidence for the economic variables and party affiliation with the President and membership in a political family as the political variables was tested to explain the probability of an incumbent governor to be re-elected. The marginal effects tell us that a change in the unemployment rate decreases the predicted probability of a governor being reelected but interestingly, a change in the poverty incidence rates has the opposite effect.

Keywords: economic voting; incumbent-oriented hypothesis; restrospective (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:hjobpa:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:1-12:n:3

DOI: 10.2478/hjbpa-2021-0019

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