The Short-Term Fertility Impact of Abortion Law Restrictions: A Research Note

Anna Matysiak () and Lucas van der Velde
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Anna Matysiak: Interdisciplinary Center for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam), University of Warsaw

No 2025-12, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: We examine the short-term fertility effects of Poland’s 2020 Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruling, which declared abortions on the grounds of fetal anomaly unconstitutional. The decision effectively outlawed nearly all legal abortions, as over 97% had been conducted on this ground. Using vital statistics and interrupted time series analysis, we find a significant and immediate decline in births of around 6.6%. The fertility response was strongest among younger women and first-time mothers, suggesting heightened sensitivity to the increased risks of pregnancy. Contrary to expectations, highly educated women did not significantly adjust fertility, likely due to greater access to abortion services abroad. Our findings demonstrate that abortion bans may lower fertility when they substantially increase the perceived costs and risks of childbearing, particularly in societies with widespread contraceptive use. These results provide insights relevant to current debates in the United States, where overturning of Roe v. Wade may also reshape fertility patterns.

Keywords: abortion; reproductive rights; fertility; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J10 J11 J12 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-tra
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https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/5533/0 First version, 2025 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-12

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