Spatial Analysis of Coal Transition Vulnerability in Indonesia

Emcet Oktay Tas, Ezgi Canpolat, Megan Cole, Abidah Billah Setyowati and Jasminah Woodhouse

No 11188, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper provides a spatial analysis of coal transition vulnerability in Indonesia. It uses a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative data on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to coal transition, summarized in a Coal Transition Vulnerability Index, with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations and interviews. The paper explores the socioeconomic implications of dependence on coal and potential shifts in production patterns for communities and workers. It finds that vulnerability to coal transition is geographically concentrated, with provinces like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra exhibiting high susceptibility due to their dependence on coal mining and coal-fired power generation. Case studies and qualitative findings further illustrate the localized nature of vulnerability, and the potential challenges faced by communities due to impending mine closures. The paper underscores significant socioeconomic and local impacts, particularly on employment within the coal value chain; highlights the disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups, including women, youth, indigenous communities, and informal workers; and highlights the need for inclusive and tailored strategies for managing the socioeconomic impacts of coal transition.

Date: 2025-08-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-ene and nep-env
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