Dissecting Extreme Price Fluctuations in Mineral Fertilizers: Regularities and Co‐Movements in Light of Global Food Security

Massimiliano Calvia

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2026, vol. 48, issue 1, 87-105

Abstract: Extreme swings in food prices can put food security at risk. Fertilizer prices are among the main drivers of food prices. This work explores the recurrent behavior of the extreme global fertilizer price fluctuations underlying food price dynamics. Extreme fertilizer price fluctuations show up every few years when located in the 10% tails and up to every few decades in the 0.1% tails of the distribution. For most global fertilizer prices, no significant differences are detected between the durations of recurring extreme peak‐peak and trough‐trough fluctuations, on the one hand, and the durations and amplitudes of booms and busts, on the other. Extreme global fertilizer price fluctuations co‐move, showing in most cases higher phase concordance during recent periods of global turbulence. This allows policy makers to exploit reference extreme fluctuations as a benchmark to design and implement more homogeneous policies targeting global fertilizer prices.

Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.70010

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:48:y:2026:i:1:p:87-105

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().