Low‐carbon policy options and scenario analysis on CO 2 mitigation potential in China's transportation sector

Zongguo Wen, Huifang Li, Xueying Zhang, Jason Chi Kin Lee and Chang Xu

Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 2017, vol. 7, issue 1, 40-52

Abstract: The annual growth rate of CO 2 emissions from China's transportation sector exceeded the growth rate of emissions from the whole society, making transportation the third‐largest CO 2 emissions sector after the industrial and household consumption sectors in China. This paper is intended to project CO 2 emissions in China's transportation sector from 2010 to 2020 and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed bottom‐up model has been developed and four scenarios have been designed to describe the future development of the sector. The results indicate that under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, emissions would increase by 58%, reaching 1.38 billion tCO 2 by 2020. Reduction potentials ranged from 96 to 515 million tCO 2 under different scenarios. Road transportation alone accounted for more than 80% of total emissions on average, making it a key target for CO 2 mitigation actions. Application of conventional transportation technology, together with accelerating the development of new‐energy technologies, was the most effective and contributed to more than 70% of reductions. These measures combined with traffic mode shifts in consumption patterns will lead to the sustainable and effective development of China's transportation sector. In addition, to avoid a rebound in transport fuel demand, policies combination is suggested. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:greenh:v:7:y:2017:i:1:p:40-52

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