On the Solution Approach for Bayesian Modeling of Initiating Event Frequencies and Failure Rates

Eduard Hofer, Stephen C. Hora, Ronald L. Iman and Jörg Peschke

Risk Analysis, 1997, vol. 17, issue 2, 249-252

Abstract: There is a need for plant‐specific distributions of incidence and failure rates rather than distributions from pooled data which are based on the “common incidence rate” assumption. The so‐called superpopulation model satisfies this need through a practically appealing approach that accounts for the variability over the population of plants. Unfortunately, the chosen order in which the integrals with respect to the individual plant rates λi, (i= 0, 1…, m) and the parameters a, β of the Γ‐population distribution are solved seems to drive the solution close to the common incidence rate distribution. It is shown that the solution obtained from interchanging the order and solving the integrals with respect to the individual plant rates by Monte Carlo simulation very quickly provides the plant specific distribution. This differing solution behaviour may be due to the lack of uniform convergence over (α, β, λI, (i= 1,…, m))‐space. Examples illustrate the difference that may be observed.

Date: 1997
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00863.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:249-252

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().