Modeling Values for Anti‐Terrorism Analysis

Ralph L. Keeney

Risk Analysis, 2007, vol. 27, issue 3, 585-596

Abstract: Decisions are made to achieve objectives. A qualitative list of the objectives for a decision is the foundation for a value model that unambiguously represents objectives in a quantitative manner. The objectives guide thinking and the value model provides a basis for analyzing alternatives to best meet the desired objectives. This article illustrates the usefulness of clearly identifying objectives and developing value models to support anti‐terrorism analysis. It outlines procedures to develop value models for the Department of Homeland Security and for terrorist organizations. The later is useful to both design anti‐terrorism alternatives and suggest possible terrorist priorities and actions. An example that develops a terrorist value model for the theft and misuse of plutonium is presented. Several uses of value models for anti‐terrorist activities are discussed and suggestions for developing such value models are outlined.

Date: 2007
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00910.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:3:p:585-596

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