 A Model of Exposure to Rotavirus from Nondietary Ingestion Iterated by Simulated Intermittent ContactsTimothy R. Julian, Robert A. Canales, James O. Leckie and Alexandria B. Boehm Risk Analysis, 2009, vol. 29, issue 5, 617-632 Abstract: Existing microbial risk assessment models rarely incorporate detailed descriptions of human interaction with fomites. We develop a stochastic‐mechanistic model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent fomes‐mouth, hand‐mouth, and hand‐fomes contacts typical of a child under six years of age. This exposure is subsequently translated to risk using a simple static dose‐response relationship. Through laboratory experiments, we quantified the mean rate of inactivation for MS2 phage on glass (0.0052/hr) and mean transfer between fingertips and glass (36%). Simulations using these parameters demonstrated that a child's ingested dose from a rotavirus‐contaminated ball ranges from 2 to 1,000 virus over a period of one hour, with a median value of 42 virus. These results were heavily influenced by selected values of model parameters, most notably the concentration of rotavirus on fomes, frequency of fomes‐mouth contacts, frequency of hand‐mouth contacts, and virus transferred from fomes to mouth. The model demonstrated that mouthing of fomes is the primary exposure route, with hand mouthing contributions accounting for less than one‐fifth of the child's dose over the first 10 minutes of interaction. Date: 2009 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:5:p:617-632 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.