Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold‐Smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization

Régis Pouillot, Véronique Goulet, Marie Laure Delignette‐Muller, Aurélie Mahé and Marie Cornu

Risk Analysis, 2009, vol. 29, issue 6, 806-819

Abstract: A model for the assessment of exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold‐smoked salmon consumption in France was presented in the first of this pair of articles (Pouillot et al., 2007, Risk Analysis, 27:683–700). In the present study, the exposure model output was combined with an internationally accepted hazard characterization model, adapted to the French situation, to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from cold‐smoked salmon consumption in France in a second‐order Monte Carlo simulation framework. The annual number of cases of invasive listeriosis due to cold‐smoked salmon consumption in France is estimated to be 307, with a very large credible interval ([10; 12,453]), reflecting data uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly associated with the dose‐response model. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the predictions, this model provides a scientific base for risk managers and food business operators to manage the risk linked to cold‐smoked salmon contaminated with L. monocytogenes. Under the modeling assumptions, risk would be efficiently reduced through a decrease in the prevalence of L. monocytogenes or better control of the last steps of the cold chain (shorter and/or colder storage during the consumer step), whereas reduction of the initial contamination levels of the contaminated products and improvement in the first steps of the cold chain do not seem to be promising strategies. An attempt to apply the recent risk‐based concept of FSO (food safety objective) on this example underlines the ambiguity in practical implementation of the risk management metrics and the need for further elaboration on these concepts.

Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01200.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:6:p:806-819

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().