Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning

Nathan F. Dieckmann, Robin Gregory, Ellen Peters and Robert Hartman

Risk Analysis, 2017, vol. 37, issue 3, 471-486

Abstract: In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.

Date: 2017
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https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12639

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:3:p:471-486

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