Judged Lethality: How Much People Seem to Know Depends Upon How They Are Asked

Baruch Fischhoff and Don MacGregor

Risk Analysis, 1983, vol. 3, issue 4, 229-236

Abstract: Four formally equivalent response modes were used to elicit laypeople's beliefs regarding the lethality of various potential causes of death. Results showed that respondents had an articulated core of beliefs about lethality that yielded similar orderings of maladies by lethality regardless of the response mode used. Moreover, this subjective ordering was fairly similar to that revealed by public health statistics. However, the absolute estimates of lethality produced by the different response modes varied enormously. Depending upon the mode used, respondents were seen to greatly overestimate or greatly underestimate lethality. The implications of these discrepancies for public education and risk analysis are explored.

Date: 1983
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb01391.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:3:y:1983:i:4:p:229-236

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