Recent Case Studies and Advancements in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

B. John Garrick

Risk Analysis, 1984, vol. 4, issue 4, 267-279

Abstract: During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation and documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in‐plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key.

Date: 1984
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00946.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:4:y:1984:i:4:p:267-279

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().