Data-driven monitoring framework for rural digital infrastructure: Evidence from internet speed trends and forecast-based quality control in the Samarkand region

Elyor Urozaliev, Ithiyor Bobojonov, Beknazar Sultonov, Dilnoza Togaeva, Abbos Saydullaev and Timur Kozukulov

EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, 2026, vol. 14, issue 4, 1269-1277

Abstract: Digital infrastructure is a crucial factor for inclusive growth, and rural digital service quality, especially in developing economies, is still behind that of cities. Therefore, continuous monitoring and short-term forecasting of service quality is important for effective management of digital infrastructure. This study presents a data-based approach for monitoring rural internet service quality in Uzbekistan, with average speed measured in Mbps being considered a fundamental service quality parameter. The study focuses on rural areas in the Samarkand region, with internet speeds measured monthly over a sample period from March 2022 to December 2025, totalling 46 observations. The objectives of this study include: (i) establishing the existence of a significant trend in rural internet speeds, (ii) establishing whether there is an annual seasonal effect, and (iii) establishing whether short-run forecasts are suitable for operations. The study employed a deterministic linear trend equation, a unit root test with seasonal differencing, and a SARIMA model, with Stata being employed for estimation purposes. The results indicate that there is a strong, significant trend in rural internet speeds, with an average increase of about 0.48 Mbps per month, with β = 0.484, p

Keywords: digital infrastructure; internet speed; rural areas; seasonality; Augmented Dickey-Fuller; SARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/344014/1/U ... l_infrastructure.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:espost:344014

DOI: 10.25673/125471

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters from ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().