Human capital, unequal opportunities and productivity convergence: A global historical perspective, 1800-2100

Nitin Kumar Bharti, Amory Gethin, Thanasak Jenmana, Zhexun Mo, Thomas Piketty and Li Yang

No 25-049, ZEW Discussion Papers from ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Abstract: This paper constructs a new global historical database on public expenditure and revenue and their components-particularly education and health expenditure-covering all world regions over the 1800-2025 period. We document a large rise of human capital expenditure (as % of GDP) in all parts of the world in the long run, but with enormous and persistent inequality between regions. Public education expenditure per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 3% of the level observed in Europe and North America in 2025 in PPP terms (versus 6% in 1980 and 4% in 1950). We also find a large impact of human capital expenditure on productivity growth over the 1800-2025 period, especially for public education and for poor countries. Estimated returns using our macro-historical database are around 10% or more, in line with micro studies. Finally, we present simulations based on alternative human capital expenditure trajectories over the 2025-2100 period. In particular, we analyze the conditions under which convergence in human capital expenditure could lead to global productivity convergence by 2100 (around 100€ per hour in all regions in our benchmark scenario).

Keywords: Human Capital; Productivity; Education; Health; Global Inequality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 H5 I15 I25 N10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff, nep-gro and nep-his
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/330312/1/1939476984.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Human Capital, Unequal Opportunities, and Productivity Convergence: A Global Historical Perspective, 1800–2100 (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:zewdip:330312

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