Survey design and professional forecasters: The case of uncertainty in the US SPF

Malte Knüppel and Lora Pavlova

No 26-017, ZEW Discussion Papers from ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Abstract: Histogram forecasts of inflation and growth from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) allow for an assessment of the evolution of forecast uncertainty. However, this assessment is complicated by structural breaks in measured uncertainty arising from changes in histogram bin widths over time. The existing literature typically does not take these breaks into account. We propose a break adjustment based on the insights provided by a structural break in 2014, during which bin widths-and consequently, measured inflation uncertainty-shifted significantly, despite true inflation uncertainty remaining virtually constant. Drawing on our results, we propose horizon-specific bin widths for inflation and growth to align measured uncertainty more closely with underlying uncertainty.

Keywords: survey forecasts; volatility; structural breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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