Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

Navid Sabet, Marius Liebald and Guido Friebel

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2025, vol. 17, issue 3, 407-40

Abstract: We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative fur Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties—the AfD in particular—adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system.

JEL-codes: D72 D74 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Related works:
Working Paper: Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany (2023)
Working Paper: Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany (2022)
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DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230615

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