Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

Navid Sabet, Marius Liebald and Guido Friebel

No 10653, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in the vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties — the AfD in particular — adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multi-party democratic system.

Keywords: terrorism; populism; media; voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 K42 L82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-eur, nep-ger and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10653.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10653

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().