Há Realmente uma Tendência a Deterioração dos Termos de Troca? Uma Análise dos Dados Brasileiros

Emerson Marçal

Economia, 2006, vol. 7, issue 2, 307-329

Abstract: The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in terms of trade is tested using modern time series econometric techniques. Using a multivariate cointegration test, the Presbish-Singer hypothesis for Brazil is rejected. The period covered by the sample is 1850-2001. The evidence shows that Brazilian terms of trade is stationary around a constant level. There is no evidence favourable to a secular trend of decline in Brazilian terms of trade.

Keywords: Hipótese Prebisch-Singer; Cointegração; Termos de Troca; Raiz Unitária (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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