Does the Phillips curve still exist?

Clémence Berson, Louis de Charsonville, Pavel Diev, Violaine Faubert, Laurent Ferrara, Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, Yannick Kalantzis, Antoine Lalliard, Julien Matheron and Matteo Mogliani

Rue de la Banque, 2018, issue 56

Abstract: Estimates from the Banque de France show that the slope of the Phillips curve in the euro area has remained weak but stable and significantly different from zero since the crisis. In the G7 countries, the coefficient of past inflation has become relatively insignificant since the 1980s,suggesting a shift towards a so-called “non-accelerating” curve. Global demand conditions are captured by import prices, including oil prices. The persistence of a negative output gap and the fall in oil prices largely explain the low level of inflation in the euro area since 2014.However, other factors such as weak wage dynamics or even the risk of an unanchoring of inflation expectations may have played out, the latter risk having called for a strong monetary policy response.

Date: 2018
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