Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices

Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo, Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia and Daniel Parra‐Amado
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Parra-Amado and Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2020, vol. 64, issue 4, 1059-1086

Abstract: Extreme weather events, like a strong El Niño (ENSO), affect society in many different ways especially in the context of recent globe warming. In the Colombian case, ENSO had a significant impact on consumer food prices during the strongest event in 2015. Our research evaluates the relationship between ENSO and Colombian food inflation growth by using a smooth transition nonlinear model. We estimate the impacts of a strong ENSO on food inflation growth by adopting generalised impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results suggest that the weather shocks are transitory and asymmetric on inflation. A strong El Niño shock has a significant effect on the food inflation growth from five to nine months after the shock, and the accumulated elasticity is close to 730 basic points. We build the GIRFs for eight different episodes associated with a strong El Niño in the period corresponding from March 1962 to December 2018, and there is no evidence of changes in the size of Colombian food inflation growth responses over time. Finally, the negative shock, associated with a strong La Niña, shows an ambiguous effect on food prices.

Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12394

Related works:
Journal Article: Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El ni~no and Colombian food prices (2020)
Working Paper: Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El Niño and Colombian food prices (2019)
Working Paper: Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El Niño and Colombian food prices (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:64:y:2020:i:4:p:1059-1086

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... 1111/(ISSN)1467-8489

Access Statistics for this article

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics is currently edited by John Rolfe, Lin Crase and John Tisdell

More articles in Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().