 Tail Causality between Crude Oil Price and RMB Exchange RateHaoyuan Ding, Yuying Jin, Cong Qin and Jiezhou Ying China & World Economy, 2020, vol. 28, issue 3, 116-134 Abstract: In this paper we assess the causal relationship between international crude oil price changes and the RMB exchange rate using daily information from 21 July 2005 to 5 April 2017. In addition to linear causality tests, we employ quantile causality test to identify prior imperceptible causality in quantiles. We find a causal relationship from crude oil price to exchange rate at each quantile interval, but the reverse only appears in tail. This may help to explain why a traditional linear test fails to capture the causality from exchange rate to crude oil price as the quantile causalities in tails are canceled out by each other. Moreover, using RMB as the settlement currency in crude oil trade can weaken the prior significant causal relationships between crude oil price and exchange rate, whereas the reform of exchange rate marketization reignites the tail causalities from exchange rate to crude oil price. These findings recommend a wider use of domestic currencies in crude oil trade to avoid risk from the crude oil market. Date: 2020 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:chinae:v:28:y:2020:i:3:p:116-134 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article China & World Economy is currently edited by Yongding Yu More articles in China & World Economy from Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Contact information at EDIRC. |
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