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Speculative trade and the value of public information

Spyros Galanis

Journal of Public Economic Theory, 2021, vol. 23, issue 1, 53-68

Abstract: In environments with expected utility, it has long been established that speculative trade cannot occur and that the value of public information is negative in economies with risk‐sharing and no aggregate uncertainty. We show that these results are still true even if we relax expected utility, so that either Dynamic Consistency (DC) or Consequentialism is violated. We characterize no speculative trade in terms of a weakening of DC and find that Consequentialism is not required. Moreover, we show that a weakening of both DC and Consequentialism is sufficient for the value of public information to be negative. We therefore generalize these important results for convex preferences which contain several classes of ambiguity averse preferences.

Date: 2021
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Journal of Public Economic Theory is currently edited by Rabah Amir, Gareth Myles and Myrna Wooders

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