Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy

Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee and members of the NTA Network
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: James Mahmud Rice, Morne Oosthuizen and Javier Olivera

Population and Development Review, 2022, vol. 48, issue 1, 51-73

Abstract: New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub‐Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working‐age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower‐income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.

Date: 2022
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