Details about Ronald Demos Lee

Homepage:	https://u.demog.berkeley.edu/~rlee/oldceda/rlee.html
Workplace:	Department of Economics, University of California-Berkeley, (more information at EDIRC) Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging (CEDA), University of California-Berkeley, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Ronald Demos Lee.

Last updated 2024-11-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

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Working Papers

2020

1. Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (17)
   See also Journal Article Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020) View citations (20) (2020)

2019

2. Overview on Heterogeneity in Longevity and Pension Schemes
   Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes, The World Bank View citations (3)
3. Redistributive Effects of Different Pension Systems When Longevity Varies by Socioeconomic Status
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article Redistributive effects of different pension systems when longevity varies by socioeconomic status, The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier (2020) View citations (18) (2020)
4. Redistributive effects of different pension structures when longevity varies by socioeconomic status in a general equilibrium setting
   VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
5. Samuelson's Contributions to Population Theory and Overlapping Generations in Economics
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (2)

2018

6. Propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systems
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (3)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systems, Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier (2018) View citations (3) (2018)

2017

7. HOW THE GROWING GAP IN LIFE EXPECTANCY MAY AFFECT RETIREMENT BENEFITS AND REFORMS
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley
   Also in Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2017) View citations (8)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (23)
   See also Journal Article How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan (2017) View citations (23) (2017)

2016

8. Macroeconomics, Aging and Growth
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (35)
   See also Chapter Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth, Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier (2016) View citations (32) (2016)

2014

9. Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption
   Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL View citations (25)
   Also in Post-Print, HAL (2014) View citations (18)
   PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2014) View citations (23)

2012

10. Macroeconomic Implications of Demographic Changes: A Global Perspective
    IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan
11. Vieillisement de la population et économie générationnelle: principales conclusions
    Documentos de Proyectos, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)

2011

12. El envejecimiento de la población y la economía generacional: resultados principales
    Documentos de Proyectos, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)

2010

13. O envelhecimento da população e a economia geracional: principais resultados
    Documentos de Proyectos, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)

2009

14. Welfare and Generational Equity in Sustainable Unfunded Pension Systems
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems, Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier (2011) View citations (42) (2011)

2008

15. The Evolutionary Theory of Time Preferences and Intergenerational Transfers
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The evolutionary theory of time preferences and intergenerational transfers, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier (2010) View citations (5) (2010)

2007

16. Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability
    Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (17)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2007)
    See also Chapter Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (14) (2009)

2006

17. Charting the Economic Life Cycle
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (23)
18. Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (36)
    See also Chapter Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (42) (2009)

2004

19. Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts
    Working Papers, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center View citations (4)
20. Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
21. Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    Also in Post-Print, HAL (2004) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090, Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc. (2010) View citations (16) (2010)

2003

22. Key Equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee Model of the Social Security System
    Working Papers, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center View citations (2)
23. Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund
    Working Papers, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center View citations (18)

2001

24. Chances are...Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund and Attempts to Save It
    Working Papers, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center View citations (1)

2000

25. From Transfers to Individual Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Taiwan and the United States
    Arbetsrapport, Institute for Futures Studies View citations (8)
26. Mortality Decline, Fertility, Saving and Human Capital
    Departmental Working Papers, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics

1998

27. Saving, Wealth, and Population
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics View citations (47)

1995

28. Una perspectiva transcultural de las transferencias intergeneracionales
    Series Históricas, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)
    See also Journal Article Una Perspectiva Transcu/tural de las Transferencias lntergeneracionales, Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) (1995) (1995)

Undated

29. A CrossCultural Perspective on Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic Life Cycle
    Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley, Demography of Aging View citations (1)
30. Death and Taxes: How Longer Life Will Affect Social Security
    Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley, Demography of Aging View citations (2)
31. History of Demography in the U.S. Since 1945
    Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley, Demography of Aging
32. Overlapping Generations Models with Realistic Demography: Statics and Dynamics
    Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley, Demography of Aging

Journal Articles

2024

1. Life Expectancy Reversals in Low‐Mortality Populations
   Population and Development Review, 2024, 50, (2), 437-459

2022

2. Generational Wealth Accounts: Did Public and Private Inter-Generational Transfers Offset Each Other over the Financial Crisis?
   The Economic Journal, 2022, 132, (647), 2412-2437 View citations (2)
3. Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy
   Population and Development Review, 2022, 48, (1), 51-73 View citations (12)

2020

4. Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics
   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, 117, (36), 22035-22041 View citations (20)
   See also Working Paper Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics, NBER Working Papers (2020) View citations (17) (2020)
5. Intergenerational resource sharing and mortality in a global perspective
   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, 117, (37), 22793-22799
6. Redistributive effects of different pension systems when longevity varies by socioeconomic status
   The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2020, 17, (C) View citations (18)
   See also Working Paper Redistributive Effects of Different Pension Systems When Longevity Varies by Socioeconomic Status, NBER Working Papers (2019) View citations (7) (2019)

2019

7. Analyzing population ageing and intergenerational redistribution: NTA and AGENTA
   Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2019, 17, (1), 001-005

2018

8. Propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systems
   Journal of Public Economics, 2018, 164, (C), 91-105 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systems, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (3) (2018)

2017

9. Does Fertility or Mortality Drive Contemporary Population Aging? The Revisionist View Revisited
   Population and Development Review, 2017, 43, (2), 285-301 View citations (13)
10. Full Generational Accounts: What Do We Give to the Next Generation?
    Population and Development Review, 2017, 43, (4), 695-720 View citations (15)
11. How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms
    The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 2017, 42, (3), 475-499 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper HOW THE GROWING GAP IN LIFE EXPECTANCY MAY AFFECT RETIREMENT BENEFITS AND REFORMS, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2017) (2017)

2016

12. Conséquences macroéconomiques du vieillissement de la population
    Revue d'économie financière, 2016, n° 122, (2), 83-102 View citations (1)
13. Demographic dividends, human capital, and saving
    The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2016, 7, (C), 106-122 View citations (42)

2015

14. BECKER AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
    Journal of Demographic Economics, 2015, 81, (1), 67-74 View citations (2)
    Also in JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, 2015, 81, (1), 67-74 (2015) View citations (12)

2014

15. How large are the effects of population aging on economic inequality?
    Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2014, 12, (1), 193-209 View citations (11)
16. Macroeconomic Consequences of Population Aging in the United States: Overview of a National Academy Report
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (5), 234-39 View citations (15)

2013

17. Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections
    Demography, 2013, 50, (6), 2037-2051 View citations (39)
18. Intergenerational Transfers, the Biological Life Cycle, and Human Society
    Population and Development Review, 2013, 38, 23-35 View citations (5)
19. Labor and consumption across the lifecycle
    The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2013, 1-2, 16-27 View citations (10)

2012

20. Sexual dimorphism and sexual selection: A unified economic analysis
    Theoretical Population Biology, 2012, 82, (4), 355-363 View citations (1)

2011

21. Fiscal Externalities of Becoming a Parent
    Population and Development Review, 2011, 37, (2), 241-266 View citations (8)
22. Generational Economics in a Changing World
    Population and Development Review, 2011, 37, (Supplement 1), 115-142 View citations (21)
23. Introduction: The Landscape of Demographic Transition and Its Aftermath
    Population and Development Review, 2011, 37, (Supplement 1), 1-7 View citations (20)
24. Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems
    Journal of Public Economics, 2011, 95, (1-2), 16-27 View citations (42)
    Also in Journal of Public Economics, 2011, 95, (1), 16-27 (2011) View citations (43)
    See also Working Paper Welfare and Generational Equity in Sustainable Unfunded Pension Systems, NBER Working Papers (2009) View citations (7) (2009)

2010

25. El envejecimiento de la población, las transferencias intergeneracionales y el crecimiento económico: América Latina en el contexto mundial
    Notas de Población, 2010
26. Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition
    (Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique)
    European Journal of Population, 2010, 26, (2), 159-182 View citations (114)
27. Nuevos enfoques sobre las cuentas nacionales de transferencias para la política fiscal, los programas sociales y las transferencias familiares de los países
    Notas de Población, 2010
28. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families
    International Social Security Review, 2010, 63, (3‐4), 145-175 View citations (1)
29. Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging
    Demography, 2010, 47, (1), S151-S172 View citations (47)
30. The evolutionary theory of time preferences and intergenerational transfers
    Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2010, 76, (3), 451-464 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper The Evolutionary Theory of Time Preferences and Intergenerational Transfers, NBER Working Papers (2008) View citations (1) (2008)
31. Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090
    Population and Development Review, 2010, 36, (1), 1-26 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090, NBER Working Papers (2004) View citations (11) (2004)

2008

32. Explaining the optimality of U-shaped age-specific mortality
    Theoretical Population Biology, 2008, 73, (2), 171-180 View citations (8)

2005

33. Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method
    Demography, 2005, 42, (3), 575-594 View citations (199)
34. Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for US Social Security Finances
    National Institute Economic Review, 2005, 194, (1), 82-93 View citations (5)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2005, 194, 82-93 (2005)

2003

35. Overlapping generations models with realistic demography
    Journal of Population Economics, 2003, 16, (1), 135-160 View citations (69)
36. Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth
    Journal of Development Economics, 2003, 70, (1), 83-101 View citations (139)
37. Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States
    Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2003, 105, (3), 339-358 View citations (26)
38. Sustainable Social Security: What Would It Cost?
    National Tax Journal, 2003, 56, (1), 27-43 View citations (5)
39. The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003, 17, (4), 167-190 View citations (296)

2002

40. Children's Economic Roles in the Maya Family Life Cycle: Cain, Caldwell, and Chayanov Revisited
    Population and Development Review, 2002, 28, (3), 475-499 View citations (13)
41. Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870
    Journal of Population Economics, 2002, 15, (2), 195-220 View citations (93)

2001

42. Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality
    Demography, 2001, 38, (4), 537-549 View citations (147)
43. Mortality decline and long-run economic growth
    Journal of Public Economics, 2001, 80, (3), 485-507 View citations (144)
44. The fiscal impact of population change
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2001, 46 View citations (20)

2000

45. Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts
    American Economic Review, 2000, 90, (2), 350-354 View citations (87)
46. Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System
    Population and Development Review, 2000, 26, (1), 137-143 View citations (4)
47. The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications
    North American Actuarial Journal, 2000, 4, (1), 80-91 View citations (123)

1999

48. Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1999, 13, (1), 117-140 View citations (33)

1998

49. Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances
    American Economic Review, 1998, 88, (2), 237-41 View citations (31)
50. Urban versus Rural: Fertility Decline in the Cities and Rural Districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910
    European Journal of Population, 1998, 14, (3), 209-264 View citations (28)

1997

51. Corrigendum Famine, revolte, and the dynastic cycle Population dynamics in historic China
    Journal of Population Economics, 1997, 10, (2), 235-236
52. Death and Taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security
    Demography, 1997, 34, (1), 67-81 View citations (35)

1995

53. Una Perspectiva Transcu/tural de las Transferencias lntergeneracionales
    Notas de Población, 1995
    See also Working Paper Una perspectiva transcultural de las transferencias intergeneracionales, Series Históricas (1995) (1995)

1994

54. Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China
    Journal of Population Economics, 1994, 7, (4), 351-78 View citations (9)
55. Fertility Decline in Prussia: Estimating Influences on Supply, Demand, and Degree of Control
    Demography, 1994, 31, (2), 347-373 View citations (13)
56. Modelación y proyección de la mortalidad en Chile
    Notas de Población, 1994 View citations (5)
57. Population Age Structure, Intergenerational Transfer, and Wealth: A New Approach, with Applications to the United States
    Journal of Human Resources, 1994, 29, (4) View citations (31)

1993

58. Accidental and Systematic Change in Population History: Homeostasis in a Stochastic Setting
    Explorations in Economic History, 1993, 30, (1), 1-30 View citations (12)
59. Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (2), 187-202 View citations (55)

1992

60. Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (3), 393-411 View citations (496)
61. Stochastic demographic forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (3), 315-327 View citations (15)

1990

62. Population Policy and Externalities to Childbearing
    The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1990, 510, (1), 17-32 View citations (1)

1989

63. U.S. births and limit cycle Models
    Demography, 1989, 26, (1), 99-115 View citations (1)

1988

64. Intergenerational Flows of Time and Goods: Consequences of Slowing Population Growth
    Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 96, (3), 618-51 View citations (13)

1987

65. Population dynamics of humans and other animals
    Demography, 1987, 24, (4), 443-465 View citations (40)

1980

66. Age Structure, Intergenerational Transfers and Economic Growth: an Overview
    Revue Économique, 1980, 31, (6), 1129-1156 View citations (49)

1977

67. Target Fertility, Contraception, And Aggregate Rates: Toward A Formal Synthesis
    Demography, 1977, 14, (4), 455-479

1974

68. The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo, the boom and the bust
    Demography, 1974, 11, (4), 563-585 View citations (19)

1973

69. Population in Preindustrial England: An Econometric Analysis
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1973, 87, (4), 581-607 View citations (21)

Books

2007

1. Global Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences
   Books, American Enterprise Institute

Edited books

2011

1. Population Aging and the Generational Economy
   Books, Edward Elgar Publishing View citations (219)

2008

2. Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (1)

2001

3. Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (68)

Chapters

2016

1. Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth
   Elsevier View citations (32)
   See also Working Paper Macroeconomics, Aging and Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (35) (2016)

2014

2. National Transfer Accounts and intergenerational transfers
   Chapter 12 in International Handbook on Ageing and Public Policy, 2014, pp 153-164 View citations (1)

2011

3. Introducing age into national accounts
   Chapter 3 in Population Aging and the Generational Economy, 2011 View citations (19)
4. Lifecycles, support systems, and generational flows: patterns and change
   Chapter 4 in Population Aging and the Generational Economy, 2011 View citations (4)
5. Population aging and the generational economy: key findings
   Chapter 1 in Population Aging and the Generational Economy, 2011 View citations (96)
6. Private transfers in comparative perspective
   Chapter 8 in Population Aging and the Generational Economy, 2011 View citations (5)
7. The changing shape of the economic lifecycle in the United States, 1960 to 2003
   Chapter 15 in Population Aging and the Generational Economy, 2011 View citations (5)
8. Theorectical aspects of National Transfer Accounts
   Chapter 2 in Population Aging and the Generational Economy, 2011 View citations (3)

2010

9. Comment on "Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Development: Evidence from the 1959-1961 China Famine"
   A chapter in The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, 2010, pp 345-348
10. The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim
    A chapter in The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, 2010, pp 19-55 View citations (8)
11. Will Demographic Change Undermine Asia’s Growth Prospects?
    Chapter 3 in Asian Regionalism in the World Economy, 2010 View citations (1)

2009

12. Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability
    A chapter in Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, 2009, pp 43-68 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics (2007) (2007)
13. Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts
    A chapter in Developments in the Economics of Aging, 2009, pp 89-122 View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (36) (2006)

2007

14. Transfers, Capital and Consumption Over the Demographic Transition
    Chapter 6 in Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, 2007 View citations (19)

2002

15. The Fiscal Effects of Population Aging in the US: Assessing the Uncertainties
    A chapter in Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 16, 2002, pp 141-180 View citations (14)

1998

16. Stochastic Forecasts for Social Security
    A chapter in Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, 1998, pp 393-428 View citations (17)

1997

17. Population dynamics: Equilibrium, disequilibrium, and consequences of fluctuations
    Chapter 19 in Handbook of Population and Family Economics, 1997, vol. 1, Part B, pp 1063-1115 View citations (4)

1980

18. A Historical Perspective on Economic Aspects of the Population Explosion: The Case of Preindustrial England
    A chapter in Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries, 1980, pp 517-566 View citations (15)