Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption

Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, E. Amporfu, C.-B. An, L. R. Bixby, J. Bravo, Marisa Bucheli, Q. Chen, P. Comelatto, D. Coy, Hippolyte d'Albis, G. Donehower, L. Dramani, A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz, R. I. Gal, M. Holz, N. T. L. Huong, F. Kluge, L. Ladusingh, S.-H. Lee, T. Lindh, L. Ling, G. T. Long, Rikiya Matsukura, D. Mccarthy, I. Mejia-Guevara, T. Mergo, T. Miller, G. Mwabu, M. R. Narayana, V. Nor, G. M. Norte, N. Ogawa, O. A. Olaniyan, Javier Olivera, Morne Oosthuizen, M. Phananiramai, B. L. Queiroz, R. H. Racelis, E. Renteria, James Rice, J. Sambt, Aylin Seckin, J. Sefton, A. Soyibo, Jorge Tovar, A.-C. Tung, Cassio Turra, B. P. Urdinola, Risto Vaittinen, R. Vanne, M. Zannella and Q. Zhang
Additional contact information
J. Bravo: Faculty of Medicine - UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago]
Q. Chen: Institute for Electronic Design Automation - Institute for Electronic Design Automation, Institute for Nanoelectronics - Institute for Nanoelectronics
N. T. L. Huong: Department of Paediatric Nephrology - Paediatric National Hospital, Hanoï Medical University
F. Kluge: ICS - Institute of Computer Science - University of Augsburg - UNIA - Universität Augsburg [Deutschland] = University of Augsburg [Germany] = Université d'Augsburg [Allemagne]
T. Lindh: Institute for Futures Studies - Institute for Futures Studies
G. T. Long: Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, Missouri - University of Missouri [St. Louis] - University of Missouri System
D. Mccarthy: Monash University [Malaysia]
N. Ogawa: IFREE - Institute for Research on Earth Evolution [Yokosuka] - JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sang-Hyop Lee

PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) from HAL

Abstract: Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.

Keywords: demography; public finance; fertility; consumption; labor force; population (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-10-10
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

Published in Science, 2014, 346 (6206), pp.229-234. ⟨10.1126/science.1250542⟩

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Working Paper: Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption (2014)
Working Paper: Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-01075298

DOI: 10.1126/science.1250542

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