Testing for Stabilizing Monetary Policy Rules: How Robust to Alternative Specifications?

Kevin Carey ()

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2001, vol. 1, issue 1, 18

Abstract: A common hypothesis of interest in estimated Taylor rules is whether the Federal Funds rate increases more than one-for-one with inflation; a rule with this characteristic is described as stabilizing. This paper discusses the interaction of this hypothesis with the widespread use of a partial adjustment model, in the context of sub-sample stability and robustness to the assumed exclusion of the long bond rate. Estimated rules display sharply different behavior in the 1980s versus the 1990s, and the degree of inertia -- on which the calculated policy response depends -- rises to implausibly high levels in the 1990s. The rising inertia sharpens the non-linearity of the model, imparting fragility to the stabilization inference. Long bond inclusion mitigates these problems, but alternatives to partial adjustment, with a more flexible approach to autocorrelation, also show promise.

Keywords: Taylor Rule; inertia; partial adjustment; inflation scare (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.2202/1534-5998.1023 (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.1:y:2001:i:1:n:3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.degruyter.com/journal/key/bejm/html

DOI: 10.2202/1534-5998.1023

Access Statistics for this article

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Arpad Abraham and Tiago Cavalcanti

More articles in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().