Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany

Donsimoni Jean Roch (), Glawion René (), Plachter Bodo () and Klaus Wälde
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Donsimoni Jean Roch: Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Jakob-Welder-Weg 4, D-55131Mainz, Germany
Glawion René: Department of Economics, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
Plachter Bodo: Institute for Virology, University Medical Center Mainz, Mainz, Germany

German Economic Review, 2020, vol. 21, issue 2, 181-216

Abstract: We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.

Keywords: Corona; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; spread of infection; Markov model; Germany; projection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 E17 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: Projecting the Spread of Covid-19 for Germany (2020)
Working Paper: Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany (2020)
Working Paper: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany (2020)
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DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0031

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