Projecting the Spread of Covid-19 for Germany

Jean Roch Donsimoni, René Glawion, Bodo Plachter and Klaus Wälde

No 8183, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with Covid-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.

Keywords: Corona; Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; spread of infection; Markov model; Germany; projection. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 E17 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-hea and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8183.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany (2020)
Working Paper: Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany (2020)
Working Paper: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8183

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().