Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany

Jean Roch Donsimoni (), René Glawion (), Bodo Plachter () and Klaus Wälde
Additional contact information
Jean Roch Donsimoni: University of Mainz
René Glawion: University of Hamburg
Bodo Plachter: University of Mainz

No 13094, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; spread of infection; Markov model; Germany; Corona; projection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 E17 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-mac and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published - published in: German Economic Review, 2020, 21 (2), 181-216.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany (2020)
Working Paper: Projecting the Spread of Covid-19 for Germany (2020)
Working Paper: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany (2020)
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