BANKERS’ FORECASTS OF FARMLAND VALUES: A QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION

Todd Kuethe () and Todd Hubbs

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2017, vol. 49, issue 4, 617-633

Abstract: This study evaluates the farmland price forecasts provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1991: quarter 1 (Q1) through 2016: Q1. Prior studies have demonstrated that similar surveys of agricultural bankers provide accurate predictions of the direction of future farm real estate values through qualitative forecast evaluation. This study extends the existing knowledge base by converting the qualitative responses to quantitative expectations. The quantified expectations are then subjected to additional forecast optimality tests, which suggest that the forecasts are unbiased but inefficient.

Date: 2017
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