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Twenty years of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Rupert de Vincent-Humphreys, Ivelina Dimitrova, Elisabeth Falck, Lukas Henkel and Aidan Meyler

Economic Bulletin Articles, 2019, vol. 1

Abstract: For two decades the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has been collecting point forecasts and probability distributions for euro area-wide HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate at different horizons. This article documents the evolution of the SPF through the changing economic landscape of the past twenty years, including the Great Moderation, with relatively high economic growth and stable inflation, the financial crisis and, more recently, a prolonged period of subdued inflationary pressures. Analyses show that the strong and persistent shocks in the past ten years have created challenges for the stability of the economic relationships and mean reversion tendencies on which forecasts tend to be based. They also suggest that in 2009 there was a lasting increase in forecasters’ assessments of uncertainty across all variables and horizons. Learning from the SPF has remained a useful input for the ECB’s economic analysis and monetary policy. JEL Classification: D84, E31, E37

Keywords: euro area; Expectations; forecasting; Survey of Professional Forecasters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02
Note: 496790
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